Forecasts
This page shows our timelines and takeoff forecasts. We are highly uncertain about this, and have expressed our uncertainty as a probability distribution over the possible times when each milestone might be reached. We show the raw result of a Monte Carlo simulation of our model, as well as our subjective all-things-considered probability distributions. We plan to keep this page up to date as our predictions change.
What do we mean by "all-things-considered"?
Though we view the model's outputs as an important source of evidence about what future AI progress might look like, we don't blindly trust it. Our all-things-considered views are informed by looking at the results of the model but then making adjustments based on intuition and which factors the model doesn't include.
How have our forecasts changed since publishing the AI Futures Model?
The forecast dropdown below shows the history of how our views have changed since publication. Here is a summary of the changes:
- 2025 Dec 31: Fixed an issue with the thresholds for TED-AI and ASI in the case where research taste at AC is better than the best human, i.e. >3.09 SDs. This affects a low percentage of our Monte Carlo simulations: 13% of Eli's, and 9% of Daniel's. This very slightly increases takeoff speeds: for example it increases P(AC->ASI < 1 year) from 26.3 to 27.1% for Eli, and from 36.7% to 37.1% for Daniel. It increases P(AC->ASI < 10 years) from 58.3% to 59.3% for Eli, and from 71.5% to 71.8% for Daniel.
Timelines to Automated AI R&D
The chart below shows how long we project it will take to achieve AC (Automated Coder) and SAR (Superhuman AI Researcher) (if you toggle it on). The x-axis is the year the milestone is achieved, and the y-axis is the probability density at a point in time, expressed in the % chance the milestone would happen within a year at that density level.
Chart Settings
Dashed lines
Probability densities are estimated based on 10,000 simulated trajectories.
Takeoff Speeds
The chart below shows how long we project it will take to reach various milestones after achieving AC (Automated Coder). The x-axis represents years after AC achievement, and the curves show the cumluative probability for when each subsequent milestone might be reached.
Chart Settings
Dashed lines
In our results analysis, we analyze which parameters are most important for the above forecasts. We also examine the correlation in our model between short timelines and fast takeoffs.